The global widebody fleet is expanding rapidly even as airlines are cutting back on capacity – so how many of you out there have been watching and wondering where all the widebody aircraft are going to go?
Here is the hit list of worries:
The 777X – Emirates, Etihad, Qatar and THY are all contracting rapidly. They cannot fill their large aircraft, they are deferring and delaying deliveries and cancelling here and there. The ramp-up of strong cut price competition from the Chinese on one side with stop overs and the big legacy carriers in the USA and Europe on the other with point to point travel at matching prices is giving the big Gulf players a massive headache – so why on earth do they need those 777X aircraft? What they really need are 787s/A350s perhaps.
So where does this leave the widebody market? Avolon says that it has placed all of its A330 aircraft on order and that all of the CIT A330 aircraft on order also are placed all with existing A330 operators, which does not narrow things down at all. They have done very well but what monthly lease rates did they achieve? A330s, neo or not, still have a great future but pressure on the 777-300ER market continues to build and trading the same over coming years is not a job for the faint of heart, rather much like the A380, which right now looks harder than ever to place.Date: May 10, 2017