Airline

United Airlines beats Wall Street expectations in full-year 2025 earnings

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United Airlines beats Wall Street expectations in full-year 2025 earnings

United Airlines has beat Wall Street expectations and were within its guidance.

The airline’s earnings per share were $10.20, up 7.9% and adjusted earnings per share were $10.62, up marginally from $10.61 a year prior. The airline’s net income for the year was up 6.5% to $3.4bn.

“Our results are built on winning more and more brand-loyal customers,” said United CEO Scott Kirby.  

United’s operating revenues were up 3.5% in 2025 to $59.1bn. This includes passenger revenues reaching $53.4bn, up 3.1%, and cargo revenues increasing 2.1% to $1.8bn. Other operating revenues were up 10.4% to $3.9bn.

Operating expenses totalled $54.4bn, up 4.6%. This resulted in operating income dipping 7.5% to $4.7bn. Full-year pre-tax earnings were $4.3bn.

The company generated $8.4bn of operating cash flow and $2.7bn in free cash flow during the year.

For the full year, the airline’s passenger numbers increased 4.3% to 181 million passengers. Capacity was up 6.1% for the year. Load factor averaged 82.2% for the year, down 0.9 percentage points.

The airline has guided estimated adjusted earnings per share of $12-14 for full-year 2026. For the first quarter of 2026, the airline has forecast around $1 to $1.50 adjusted earnings per share.

For the fourth quarter, the airline’s earnings per share was up 8.1% to $3.19 per share, while net income was up 6% in the quarter to $1bn.

While total operating revenues in the quarter was up 4.8% in the quarter to $15.4bn, operating expenses outpaced this growth at 6.2%, reaching $14bn. This resulted in its operating income dipping 7.8% to $1.4bn.

The government shutdown in November had impacted the airline’s fourth-quarter pre-tax earnings by around $250 million.

During the earnings call, management said the government shutdown had largely hit its domestic markets.

Management was reserved in its outlook for Caribbean markets, given the current geopolitical climate, but said it could still see positive growth.

“We are looking for sequential improvement everywhere,” said management. “Clearly, the Atlantic is leading the way, which is great to see. We’re growing a lot across the Atlantic – a lot of it is Israel –  but we think we’ve got the capacity equation really dialled in across that region.”

The company added that “premium cabins are leading the way” across its entire network.

Management highlighted the strong results despite 2025 being a “challenging year” what with the shutdown, macro volatility and challenges at its hub Newark Airport. The airport faced significant ATC staffing shortages, technical issues, and other challenges in the year, which ultimately impacted adjusted full-year earnings by around 85 cents per share.

For 2026, United expects 100 narrowbody deliveries, though management said in the call this could be “a little more” given both Airbus and Boeing’s improving supply chains and production outputs.

On the widebody side, the airline said it expects 20 787s during the year, which is also the amount expected in future years too.

“The modernisation of the widebody fleet is not just for growth, but it helps drive profitability and better returns on capital for United going forward,” management said in the call. “We feel really good about the CAPEX profile and how it will support the financials.”

Adjusted total capital expenditure is expected to be just under $8bn for the year.

As of the end of 2025, the company had a total debt of $25bn and a net leverage of 2.2x.