Airbus Global Market Forecast predicts 31,400 aircraft needed over 20 years

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By TESTCustomwebLP TESTCustomwebLP September 25, 2014 21:27

Airbus Global Market Forecast predicts 31,400 aircraft needed over 20 years

According to Airbus’s Global Market Forecast, the next 20 years (2014-2033) will see passenger traffic grow annually at 4.7%, driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats and above) worth US$4.6 trillion. The passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft. Some 12,400 older and less fuel-efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired.

“Aviation is growing impressively and our latest forecast confirms its long term growth. While mature aviation regions such as Europe and North America will continue to grow, Asia will stand out along with emerging markets for dynamic development,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “This growth trend is confirmed by Chinese domestic traffic becoming the world’s number one aviation market within the next 10 years”.

In the widebody market, Airbus foresees a continuing trend towards larger models, with aircraft flying on long haul routes and also on an increasingly wide range of regional and domestic sectors. As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement for nearly 9,300 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some US$2.5 trillion. This represents 30% of all new aircraft deliveries over the forecast period and 55% by value.

“We see especially strong growth in widebody twins such as our A350 XWB and A330neo. Demand exceeds supply for these new generation aircraft, especially in the 2017 to 2022 time period and beyond, so naturally we are studying production increases on both models,” said John Leahy. The first A350 XWB will be delivered later this year while the first A330neo in 2017.

The widebody demand will include some 7,800 twin aisle aircraft with between 250 and 400 seats and some 1,500 very large aircraft with over 400 seats for operation on the busiest routes. Reflecting a higher than average growth and concentration of populations around cities, almost half of the new passenger widebodies will be delivered to carriers based in the Asia-Pacific region, then the Middle East (16%), Europe (15%) and North America (9%).

In the single aisle market, where the A320 Family and the latest generation A320neo Family are firmly established as the global market leaders, the latest Airbus forecast sees a requirement for over 22,000 new aircraft worth US$2.1 trillion over the next 20 years, an increase of 2,000 aircraft compared to the previous forecast, representing 70% of all new units and 45% of the value of all deliveries.

Demand for single aisle aircraft will continue to remain high in markets such as Europe and North America, taking delivery of some 22% and 21% single aisle aircraft respectively. However, both regions will be overtaken by accelerating demand for single aisle aircraft in Asia. This will be driven primarily by the domestic markets in China and India, as well as the growing low cost segment in South East Asia, with some 37 per cent of all single aisle deliveries going to the Asia-Pacific region.

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By TESTCustomwebLP TESTCustomwebLP September 25, 2014 21:27